Origin Energy Ltd (ORG.AX) Technicals Take Center Stage

Origin Energy Ltd (ORG.AX) shares are on chartist’s watch as the stock is edging below the MACD Histogram zero line.  Current levels place the share price around 7.72, while the MACD indicates a bearish trend.

The MACD-Histogram is an indicator of an indicator. In fact, MACD is also an indicator of an indicator. This means that the MACD-Histogram is four steps removed from the price of the underlying security. In other words, it is the fourth derivative of price.

  • First derivative: 12-day EMA and 26-day EMA
  • Second derivative: MACD (12-day EMA less the 26-day EMA)
  • Third derivative: MACD signal line (9-day EMA of MACD)
  • Fourth derivative: MACD-Histogram (MACD less MACD signal line)

The base for this indicator is the security’s price. It takes four steps to get from the actual price to the MACD-Histogram. Chartists should keep this in mind when analyzing the MACD-Histogram. It is an indicator of an indicator. Therefore, it is designed to anticipate signals in MACD, which in turn is designed to identify changes in the price momentum of the underlying security.

Investors may already be plotting the course for the next few quarters. Many investing decisions may need to be made after the next round of company earnings reports are released. Studying the numbers can help the investor see whether or not the stock’s prospects look good in the near term as well as the longer term. It remains to be seen whether optimism in the stock market will continue into the next year. Investors will closely be monitoring the major economic data reports over the next couple of months. While nobody can be sure which way the momentum will shift, preparing for multiple market scenarios may greatly help the investor if changes start to occur.  

Turning to some additional key metrics, the 14-day ADX for Origin Energy Ltd (ORG.AX) is 44.23. Generally speaking, an ADX value from 0-25 would indicate an absent or weak trend. A value of 25-50 would indicate a strong trend. A value of 50-75 would signal a very strong trend, and a value of 75-100 would indicate an extremely strong trend. The Average Directional Index or ADX is a technical analysis indicator used to describe if a market is trending or not trending. The ADX alone measures trend strength but not direction. Using the ADX with the Plus Directional Indicator (+DI) and Minus Directional Indicator (-DI) may help determine the direction of the trend as well as the overall momentum. Many traders will use the ADX alongside other indicators in order to help spot proper trading entry/exit points.

Origin Energy Ltd (ORG.AX) presently has a 14-day Commodity Channel Index (CCI) of -121.33. Typically, the CCI oscillates above and below a zero line. Normal oscillations tend to stay in the range of -100 to +100. A CCI reading of +100 may represent overbought conditions, while readings near -100 may indicate oversold territory. Although the CCI indicator was developed for commodities, it has become a popular tool for equity evaluation as well. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of stock price movements. The RSI was developed by J. Welles Wilder, and it oscillates between 0 and 100. Generally, the RSI is considered to be oversold when it falls below 30 and overbought when it heads above 70. RSI can be used to detect general trends as well as finding divergences and failure swings. The 14-day RSI is currently at 20.89, the 7-day stands at 15.38, and the 3-day is sitting at 19.69.

Taking a peek at some Moving Averages, the 200-day is at 9.26, and the 50-day is 9.18. Dedicated investors may be looking to employ another tool for doing technical stock analysis. The Williams Percent Range or Williams %R is a technical indicator that was designed to measure overbought and oversold market conditions. The Williams %R indicator helps show the relative situation of the current price close to the period being observed. Origin Energy Ltd (ORG.AX)’s Williams Percent Range or 14 day Williams %R presently is at -82.83. In general, if the reading goes above -20, the stock may be considered to be overbought. Alternately, if the indicator goes under -80, this may show the stock as being oversold.